Karen Douglas conducts extensive research on conspiracy theories and their effects on individuals, groups, and society. One of her key research findings suggests that people tend to believe conspiracy theories when feeling uncertain.
These feelings of uncertainty often increase conspiracy beliefs as well as illusory pattern perception and agency detection generally, which prevents us from seeking accuracy and meaning through other more rational means.
The Psychological Origins of Belief in Conspiracy Theories
People tend to gravitate towards conspiracy theories because they provide psychological relief, such as epistemic (e.g., seeking understanding, accuracy and subjective certainty), existential (e.g., seeking control and security), or social (i.e. maintaining positive image of self or group).
Research has repeatedly shown that people’s motivations for believing conspiracy theories are closely connected with their underlying emotions, particularly feelings of powerlessness and disillusionment with society. A 2018 study by researchers from University of Minnesota and Lehigh University discovered that individuals reporting these emotions were more likely to subscribe to conspiratorial theories such as climate scientists pursuing grant money or politicians running amok (Jolley et al., 2018).
These same studies have also demonstrated how exposure to conspiracy theories immediately undermines people’s sense of autonomy and control, making them less committed to organizations or even countries (Douglas & Jolley 2017; Smallpage et al 2018) as well as taking actions which might ultimately increase these feelings (such as registering to vote or placing political signs at home (Jolley et al 2014a; Uscinski & Parent 2015).
Needs for control and security can also drive conspiracy beliefs. Numerous experiments demonstrate this effect; when people feel insecure they become more susceptible to accepting conspiracy theories that claim corrupt officials are behind natural disasters and other major events or that the government is concealing health-risk information (Leman & Cinnirella 2013; Van Prooijen & Jostmann 2013; Whitson et al 2008).
One motivator related to maintaining a positive image for oneself or group can also be maintaining an idealist worldview. Studies show that people who support conspiracy theories are more likely to think their group is being victimized by outsiders or believe other groups conspiring against them (Uscinski & Parent 2015; Douglas & Jolley 2016), as well as view violence as acceptable forms of protest (Jolley et al 2017).
The Impact of Conspiracy Beliefs on Individuals and Society
Studies show that conspiracy beliefs may have negative repercussions for individuals, groups and society as a whole. These effects may relate to how people interpret both their own motives as well as those of others. People who support conspiracy theories tend to overestimate the significance of personal motivations and personality traits when explaining other people’s actions while underestimating other influences such as random chance or social norms. This phenomenon is known as fundamental attribution error and its logic lies within human evolution, when tight-knit groups depended on understanding each member’s motives for survival. Thus, people who believe conspiracy theories tend to assume that other people’s behavior must have malicious motives and don’t trust anyone around them.
Conspiratorial thinking could also meet certain psychological needs. Conspiracy theories frequently assert that our world is in disarray and powerful forces seek to control it – which may appeal to people at times of crises who need explanations for important events and experiences.
Conspiracy theories can also provide those looking for something clever or special an easy way to feel smart or special. People might believe they possess access to secret knowledge the mainstream media doesn’t cover (the “do your research” argument), or are flexible free-thinkers compared with the sheep-like majority controlled by elites (the “speaking truth to power” argument).
Finally, it should be mentioned that conspiracy theories can often be associated with feelings of victimisation and victim-blaming. This can create a vicious cycle in which conspiracy theories are accepted by those who feel their group has been marginalised, which in turn leads them to believe powerful outgroups are conspiring against them – an effect linked to narcissism (an exaggerated view of self-greatness that requires external validation) and paranoid ideation (Cichocka, Marchlewska, Golec de Zavala Olechowski 2016).
Literature shows that experimental exposure to conspiracy theories reduces people’s sense of autonomy and control, making them less willing to take steps that would increase it, such as voting or giving money to political candidates. Further work needs to be done on understanding how economic, political and cultural circumstances shape our tendency toward conspiratorial thinking.
The Impact of Conspiracy Beliefs on Groups
Conspiracy theories are usually thought of as individual experiences; however, they can have far reaching ramifications on groups as a whole. Studies have demonstrated how conspiracy beliefs have an effect on political attitudes; however these changes appear to be moderated by preexisting political attitudes and the strength and level of investment within groups (Referring back to Jolley & Douglas2014b). When someone belongs to highly invested groups they are more likely to adopt conspiracies (Jolley & Douglas2014b).
Conspiracy theories can also have adverse impacts on social and civic behavior, including climate engagement, trust in science, vaccine uptake and covid-19 response. Although these effects don’t justify banning conspiracy theories outright, they highlight the need for research that examines their impacts across diverse individuals and communities.
Studies have also revealed that conspiracy theories are linked to reduced political engagement – such as voting, volunteering or attending community events – likely because those with conspiracy views perceive that their group may be at risk, prompting them to look for alternative explanations for their circumstances.
Some research has examined whether macro-level factors, like economic conditions or culture, might be linked to conspiracy beliefs; however, such studies are scarce and primarily use cross-sectional correlations as their methodology. Further, many nations’ economies and cultures tend to be highly inter-related, making it hard to control for these influences when analyzing data – creating spurious correlations that might indicate the presence of an unknown third variable.
Studies have demonstrated how conspiracy theories can spread quickly via online social networks and other sources. This could have serious repercussions for political and ideological views as these networks expand globally – potentially having serious ramifications on democracy and social cohesion.
Psychological needs that lead people towards conspiracy theories include belonging, feeling special or clever and belonging to an ethical collective (Reference Douglas, Sutton and Cichocka2018). Satisfying these needs through different means may reduce their appeal.
The Impact of Conspiracy Beliefs on Society
Over recent years, there has been increasing attention paid to understanding the micro (individual), meso (intergroup), and macro (nation) influences driving conspiracy beliefs. Unfortunately, however, most research on these different levels often operates independently from one another; each having their own specific language, approaches, and theoretical underpinnings that impede understanding the negative consequences associated with conspiracy beliefs and their reduction.
Conspiracy theories can often serve as an adaptive response for those feeling powerless and disillusioned, providing them with a way of making sense of a chaotic world by providing a coherent narrative. They can also subvert dominance hierarchies within groups where conspiratorial beliefs become normative or official positions (Sapountzis and Condor, 2013). At times however, conspiracy beliefs may even lead to violence as people feel justified attacking anyone they perceive as conspirators (Douglas and Sutton, 2011).
At a macro level, conspiracy theories can be reinforced by political operatives and media who support them. Populist politicians can teach their followers to view life through the lens of conspiratorial thinking – rewarding those susceptible to conspiracy thinking for doing so with political support or financial compensation. This creates a cycle in which those more susceptible become increasingly convinced that government agencies are hiding information or harboring hidden agendas.
At a meso level, conspiracy theories can be fuelled further by online communities where conspiracy content is exclusively provided. These echo chambers can feed into entrenched beliefs, increase criminal activities and foster an atmosphere of distrust within society as a whole. Social anxiety increases feelings of social insecurity by convincing individuals that powerful institutions such as government are out to get their money and freedom (Uscinski & Parent, 2014). At an individual level, these beliefs can lead to disillusionment with politics, decreasing political engagement (Jolley et al. 2014b) and motivating individuals to plot against the government themselves (Douglas and Sutton 2011). Furthermore, such attitudes could increase violence as an alternative form of protesting injustices they perceive.